In “The Nine Nations of North America” by Joel Garreau his basic principles for what was in 1981 a radical notion and then became more mainstream was floated on a simple idea. There was no major sociological or political science behind his book. It was an idea that floated on wings of explanation. There was a lot of research that went into the book, and academics pull it apart from time to time. Yet thirty years later the book still seems relevant. Much like his idea of regionalization I too have an idea. I think that we can find the roots of empire decay in the decisions of the now on the capabilities of the future using simple principles. I think that we can from relatively small (to the problem) data sets gain a narrative of what we will see in the future can be constructed with relative ease.
The principle on the micro is to let history dictate our research into the future. In the micro we take a community selected based on size (TBD) and geography (TBD). That community will have records of the decisions and choices they have made on infrastructure. That will make the data sets. Much of the decision processes seem to follow the same pattern (such as a bids, high, low, medium, selection criteria, deferral to the future, grants and gifts). Using the preselected window projects would be followed to when they either failed, were finished, or were not funded. The ratios of each end state will give a good idea of the deferral and relative success of the communities. The kind of projects might give a good indicator on the quality or sustainability of decision makers choices.
If enough communities in enough diverse locations and political spheres are surveyed (as in researched within the research window) a larger national picture should emerge. That picture I believe will show a creeping increasing in deferred projects and failed projects. Now, the good academics will mention selectivity bias, and troubles with the window chosen and perturbations in temporal process are always tricking. My basic answer is so what? In forecasting a future we’re treading pretty steep terrain as to relevancy anyways. Why would we do this? We might find certain communities that are very resilient and structured towards success. They might not be the darlings of media and politics either. It might be interesting to understand what really works toward keeping the community resilient and maintained.
Just a few ideas to think about. Yes to comment you have to register. Sorry but it is to keep SPAM at a minimum.