So each year I have a set of predictions that I put forward. I started back in 2007, skipped a few years formalizing the process, but did so again last year. This year I have a few counter group think predictions, and a few that are obvious. So my scorecard for 2010?
2010 Predictions?
- Netbooks are a transition device to be replaced? Most obviously the netbook has swollen and gotten fat. It is really no longer a netbook market but a slim laptop market. The tablet market has exploded and supposedly we will see even more tablets in the market. Verdict? Win.
- Cloud computing continues to rise, but security issues bust the bubble? A lot of attention in the last third of the year has started to be brought to the Amazon cloud offering after kicking Wikileaks to the curb. New ‘cloud’ type formats are being discussed for ‘private’ clouds. The reality? Win.
- Social media migration? Facebook is bigger, MySpace is on life support, Yahoo! and others are still trying, and Google Wave has been end of lifed (though may be an open source project soon). Meh. Lose.
- Security stuck right where it has always been? Well duh. Win!
So, predictions for 2011?
- The continued convergence of devices into pads and phones will accelerate. We haven’t even come close to the end of the road here. The desktop computer has not substantially changed in form factor since 2000 with the introduction of all-in-one form factors. The laptop also has not changed and has stabilized with 12 inch screens as the primary small format and 15-17 inch screens for desktop replacements. The iPhone owns a large share of the consumer market for smart phones, and BlackBerry is seeming to keep a good handle on the corporate silo. I would like to see my iPhone device be able to connect to my monitor and keyboard and with 64gb of memory be a true convergence device but I don’t see that kind of hyper capability happening this year.
- Walk away from the cloud local network synchronization here we come. Another mobile computing prediction. With numerous pad/tablet computers being introduced in 2010-2011 that leaves an open question on market opportunities. The number one opportunity is localized sync services. There is a tendency to think that syncing through the cloud is great, but localized sync services are more secure. The Apple MobileMe service seems to work fairly well, and Microsoft Exchange services is the granddaddy of the calendar, contacts market. Now with mobile phones, pads/tablets and consumer devices using them a better synchronization (minus the wires) is almost bound to fill the void. It is interesting to note that Apple has killed applications from the application store that provided these types of services. Get ready. Wireless secure local synchronization is coming.
- Single-sourcing, it’s more than an euphemism it is a competitive advantage. Get ready for a new term called single-sourcing. Out-sourcing, rural-sourcing, free-sourcing and so many other methods of containing costs have been tried. Specific tasks can be sent out from a company to be done by contractors. Core business, and business intelligence though simply shouldn’t be done that way. Market and competitive advantage are lost if those core processes are sent out of house. One answer is to single-source or bring many different skills into a group or single individual and generalize the tasks. Instead of a growing specialization within the corporate ranks generalization holds sway. This is a principle of do-more-with-less. There are significant labor and market issues to be fixed, but from government to corporate expect the information technology market to start reflecting more of this principle. Instead of a networking person, and a software engineer person, you end up with a single person who does both.
- Security simply isn’t going to move much further forward as a discipline. The same old standards apply. We solved most of the technical problems long ago in the security realm. We can build extremely secure systems that are fairly useable, but we still don’t invest in best practices. This is a human agent issue and a problem of politics within the corporate culture as much as the government regulatory culture. There are economic perverse incentives at work that keep the information technology systems from being resilient to exploitation. I do not expect those incentives to be changed anytime soon.
So there you go, four predictions in the information technology realm looking forward into 2011. As an aside since people will expect some discussion of cyber warfare. I expect that the headlines will be dotted heavily by discussion of cyber warfare, but rarely actually cyber warfare. The discussion is going to finish the hype cycle sometime around summer as the cacophony of counter evidence to the most idiotic cyber warfare claims become obvious. Real cyber warfare has been described elsewhere on my website, but the political, governmental, and corporate aspects of the claimants are so utterly devoid of realistic understanding of conflict as to be laughable.
Here is wishing everybody a wonderful new year, and I hope that everybody has a safe year. To my friends in combat zones around the world “duck”. To my friends in higher education at many universities “duck”. To my many readers I suggest a beer to welcome in the New Year and a hope for continued success.