I’ve seen yet another special forces (operator) book on leadership, or military general talking about leadership. I’m not going to say they have nothing to say about it but I’m a bit rankled by the fan boys. I’ve been in the military, academia, and industry. I’m not going to be writing a book on leadership anytime soon. Fundamentally, the military is focused on mission and leadership is an important pillar in accomplishing a mission. It starts in the basic training of enlisted military members and culminates in advanced education of senior officers and civilian leaders. Yet, there is still more to this story.
It is easy to point at the military for leadership suggestions. However, for just about everybody in the world it is a poor choice. It is easy to lead when you have a fully indoctrinated population, sharing a cohesive cultural experience, with a legally enforced chain of command. We can point at great leadership in combat, but I have seen some nasty behavior in board rooms. I just haven’t seen open warfare. The culture, structure, concepts, continuing education, selection mechanisms, requirements, and law all support leaders in the military.
Generally, in business you must accomplish a lot, but you don’t get that kind of organizational support. Similarly, we tend to look at senior business leaders and attempt to learn from these successful people how to lead. Yet many of them are just lucky. A sieve of failures has left them with a success.
Both leadership groups are standing on the cusp of a hysteria they have yet to understand. Neither leadership group cohesively is thinking through the future. Industry and government leaders seem to be stuck in paradigm that no longer is effective or representative of reality. They are leading through an economic upheaval that will shake the establishments in ways they simply aren’t flexible enough to understand. The news is filled with stories of the storm but almost none of these leaders due to the very selection mechanisms of their environment are listening. I place the pillars of this change into groupings of 1) pandemic, 2) FIRE, 3) Where, 4) Why, and 4) Mil-Z.
An entire group of workers was sent home from the pandemic. The food service, and general service industry went home with nothing to do. A generation of workers and students were given the gift of time to consider their life choices. Like the woke character in a novel coming home from a gap year. Many of them looked at the subsistence exploitative wages of their life and chose not to return to work. Some got educated (outside the norm vocation/college). Some got on board with creating a business easily making more income eroding the big end established brands with boutique regional brands. Some started their own local food service and the “craft” food company to go along with craft beer. The military may see a significant change in recruiting. The one take away is the work force was abandoned and isn’t returning but they are more than willing to compete.
I’m not sure if it has legs but the idea of retirement age is morphing. Those seeking financial independence to retire early (FIRE) are having an impact. Economic wise people living far below their income means huge savings but less money in circulation. That has economic impacts at scale that business and industry should consider. Policy around everything from social security and Medicare could be impacted. When people drop out early, they are no longer earning towards supporting social security. When people drop out early and then move to a much cheaper country to live all that money like a big tech corporation tax shelter leaves the nation never to return. When the savings enters the economy of another nation it is double impact. The military has a good story here if they increase wages significantly because of their retirement strategy. Just as a point of bias to be honest. I’m a fan of FIRE and dividend investing strategies I just feel that they are rigged games and I’m not savvy enough to figure it all out.
During the pandemic a significant number of people made quarantine cells or moved home with family. Similarly, a bunch of people bought boats, vans, RVs, or just started learning a new skill. The continued supply chain disruptions as the “just in time” supply chain convulses from abuse and politics hasn’t helped this. What has happened is some number of people are moving to farms, or small towns, and I’ve personally seen many people choose to get out of the big city. I’m hearing a lot of noise that if made to return to work they will just quit.
Anecdote: I’m finding that employees have learned that less is more and companies aren’t learning. One company I heard about said, fine don’t come back to the office but your cost of living is less in small town USA so we’ll decrease your pay. The workers quit because the employment pool is national. The worker (software engineer, program manager, security) as an individual contributor/creator has nearly limitless opportunity the company nearly none.
Companies are finding that top tier talent is passing or that even given significant investment in salary they are not the employer of choice. Some of this is because of corporate choices in how they act (politics), and some of it is a employee perceived enlightened view of employment (wokeness). Tech privilege is real and often manifests as a form of meritocracy. The “Keeper Test” at Netflix is a good example of this. Rather than put the onus on leadership it makes the employee strive and if the employer doesn’t like the employee they are gone. Yet where is the check on the leader? If you only give privilege to a small group, or you only allow a small group to succeed, and then how can you blame those other employees? The 10X argument holds a lot of weight with management types but misses the fact that 10X players need the 1X players to block and tackle. The pandemic de-linked compensation from employment opportunity. Very few people are unemployed or collecting unemployment benefits. Yet we see changes in the landscape of competition for employees. Simon Sinek says companies should be asking their why. Companies should be realizing about now that employees are asking their own why too.
I’m generation X. In the book the Fourth Turning the authors basically say I’m screwed. My retirement went up in a Baby Boomer pyramid scheme called the stock market crash. I’ve changed careers as the boomer buffoons changed the rules and went from “free love, drugs for everybody, give peace a chance.” To the draconian generation of war on love, drugs, and bomb them into the stone age.
Having a couple gen-z living on the boat with me lets me have a few perceptions. These born digital kids curate their online life. They eschew frivolous behaviors and work hard. Not all gen-z is like them. There are plenty of hard-core partiers, but they are fewer. The harbor party boats at spring break are still full but the age is in the late 20’s and early 30’s (millennials). The gen-z are off climbing rocks, doing adventures, getting career certificates as teams, and changing the world. You want to hire these folks you had better be interested giving them a buy-in that is real. This is a generation you need but literally does not need you as a military or corporate employer. They are struggling for identity still, but it doesn’t take a genius to understand change is coming.
Some policy points to think about. A few silicon zillionaires pop off great ideas like “nobody needs college” after they have gotten it. Remember they are leaders not great leaders. The gen-z adults are way ahead of the zillionaires. They are using YouTube, various training program, and learning how not to be dependent on an organizational structure that for 40 years has shown no loyalty to the work force. Similarly, the military has significant issues and though a great way out of poverty will struggle to attract the best and the brightest. The military though has in the past had plans to get over this kind of hassle. As flexible as industry is the responses are often insignificant.
States and the nation are going to have to consider the perils of tax code and residency. It is not missed that much of the changes in address I’ve seen have been away from high tax, high density locations, to low tax, and low-density locations. The few cases I’ve heard of the opposite states have talked about taxing the people remotely working in their locations. Creating a pariah effect and further negatively impacting the economies of the state. Conversely, several low-cost destinations external to the United States are giving “remote workers”
The world changed and the call for back to normal is a hollow bellow of get back to work. The blue-collar work force has been exposed to an abject level of loyalty by the business and government. Forced to consider other options for survival many have done that. The implications for competition for these workers are significant. You are looking at the looming real estate change. Housing and material due to supply chain disruptions are significant. The social and cultural changes of America have significantly swung away for corporatism and government.
Within this change you can find normalcy that some leaders crave. It is the blindness to all the other changes that will hammer home the differences of the real new normal. I was not a good Marine. However, I did learn the mantra of improvise, adapt, and overcome. I’m not seeing a lot of senior leaders in government, military or industry embrace the suck. You can embrace change and see what kind of adventure it takes you on, or you can fight change in a bare knuckles brawl only to be taken out by a sucker punch where you are the sucker.
Leadership whether the tightly controlled shared experience of the military or the adhocracy of giantism in corporations. They both are blowing in the winds of change, and they don’t seem to know it yet. The pandemic, the economic shifts of expectations, the location, and regions of earning and spending, the social and cultural rift and the generations of workers are moving under your feet as a leader.
So, what are you going to do?