February 23, 2025

1 thought on “Cyber conflict and transnational cyber crime: Midterm Exam

  1. Just thought I’d add my brain-poison thoughts.

    1) Is there human agency at work against the target?

    Always. Unless Stross’ ATHENA system has gone live, in which case we’re hosed.

    2) Is there coordination in the attacks against targets?

    Maybe.

    3) Is there any groups who might benefit from using cyber to attack the targets?

    Yes. Always. See #1. (Of course, a more conspiracy-minded person might point out that there are lots of groups that benefit from *anyone* using “cyber” to attack almost anything.)

    4) Is there an obvious strategic, operational, tactical pattern to the current attacks?

    I don’t think so—but if there was, that would reflect badly on those responsible.

    5) Is there reason to be concerned?

    Yes. Always. See #1.

    6) Given the questions what other evidence to support or refute the hypothesis exists?

    This is a question that presumes its own answer in both directions. If you think there’s a vast conspiracy^H^H^H criminal enterprise, then *every* attack on any system is related. If not, then such things are random.

    7) You must take a position as to whether it likely, unlikely and you must support through analysis that position.

    Heh. Well, the problem with vast, world-spanning conspiracies is that they’re very hard to operate in a leak-proof manner (see also Grugq, DPR, NSA). So I’m gonna go with not real likely.

    8) Is there a technological component to the attacks?

    Yes. There is a technological component to everything, post-fire.

    9) How is transmission, processing and storage of information involved in the attacks?

    …wait, seriously?

    10) Is the attack based on a purely cyber, purely not cyber, or a hybrid?

    Hybrid.

    11) How can you describe effects on confidentiality, integrity, and availability?

    Heh. I love security courses. CIA is a fun triad, of course, but here’s the killer: even if there was no significant damage to any of the three, the *perception* of such damage—in a fully fact-free way—can be used to great effect. See also Chomsky.

    12) The primary question is whether this is an ongoing conflict that may escalate or something where it is coincidental that each event has nothing to do with the pattern.

    See #7.

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