Now and then, I look into my crystal ball. This is usually a dark place. Having the will to look where others ignore has a certain level of nihilism. It is not that somebody advocates for evil to triumph, but that evil is pervasive. It is not advocating for one side or another. On the other hand, I’m forced to do this because silly pundits proffering national security advice on national television remind me of the braying of mules looking for apples. Here’s my opinion: give me an apple.
The level of derp I have already seen by these talking heads is … derpendous. Some of the claims are that we can’t defend our allies with no speaker of the house. The War Powers Act gives the POTUS broad powers to act and use funds. Some poodunces have said the USA cannot adequately respond to Ukraine and Israel issues. It is about as silly as you can communicate with recent activities in Iraq, Iran, and various other hot spots rolling around in the stuttering cylinders of their minds.
The idea that a trillion-dollar military machine can’t adequately respond because of some senator is equally derpendous. If holding up a thousand promotions, let alone 300 stops the USA from responding to a brush fire conflict, then fire all the generals. Finally, there is a discussion that Biden won’t help Israel because of the “election, ” which somehow makes sense to them—knowing that wartime presidents often garner significant upticks in the polls.
The commentariat has a series of talking points that they trot out to support some errant logic. Talking point one, “Gaza is not Hamas,” is both untrue and has no bearing on the conversation. Hamas could not exist without Gaza, and Gaza exists because of Hamas. The compliance of a society that violence springs from is a requirement. At no point in balls to the wall war has a nation cared about the civilian population.
A second related talking point is “Remember the children.” Pondering a moment on the world’s response to Russian support of Syria against civilian targets with chemical weapons. I can’t imagine this talking point slowing or impacting policy decisions. A lesson of modern politics is that words are a weakness when not backed up by painful acts in their support. I’m not saying diplomacy has no place, but words are only a fraction of the diplomatic activities possible.
Hamas and Gaza are inextricably linked, and an attack deep into the environment of a nation like Israel will result in a punishing, if not impossible, to comprehend by modern people’s response.
All kinds of nasty things have happened, and history is deep with evil between Israel and the Arab states. There is lots of ink on how this was unexpected, and the Israel defense force was caught with knickers around their ankles. Take a pin and pop that blame balloon. There has been an incursion, response, or general violence between Gaza and Israel every few months. Scope, scale, and speed might have been surprising, but I doubt it. Further, lots of ink spilled on “IRAN,” which is like saying water is wet. I see many “Western” nations’ political classes and think tank mafias projecting their domestic angst on the BRICS instead of thinking the issues through.
So what is going to happen?
Option 1: The most likely. There will be a series of punishing responses by Israel, destroying further the livability and survivability of the Gaza Strip. Israel will likely destroy 5% and 15% of all structures along the Gaza Strip. Upwards of 10K people in the Gaza Strip will be unalived. Israel will continue to punish Gaza until the goodwill they enjoy as victims is eroded, and they’ll go just that little extra to make a point of independence. Tripwires, you’ll see lawsuits in the courts, national condemnation, and withdrawal of aid.
Keep a close eye on the MAGA weasel’s use of IRAN as a bludgeon of POTUS Biden. Their inability to reflect and keep their counsel will let us know the wind’s direction, much like living downwind of the dump. The hostages will appear to be a reason for a slowed response.
However, Israel likely has an idea where the hostages are located (or at least some of them), and if we don’t see rescue operations in the next week, there will likely not be rescue operations. War and the laws of armed conflict do NOT apply, so the lawyers can all go pound sand. They get to write about it after the posies are planted. I would say there is a discussion within Israel that the people taken hostage died when their freedom was removed.
Option 2: Much like the first option, Israel engages but seeks an end to the ability for Hamas ever to hurt them gain. Israel is sitting on a rather large arsenal. Gaza has a population density similar to Hong Kong. In the next 7 to 14 days, a secondary incursion by Hamas destroyed the civilian infrastructure in Gaza, rivaling Tokyo firebombing or the Blitz over England.
Modern society has no concept of high-intensity warfare, and general members of society say, “That can’t happen.” Humans are more than capable of wanton destruction, and our attention span is so short regarding violence. A nation can wipe out 300K or 500K people in a few days, and it will be a footnote. As such, it is not outside the realm of possibility, and it is a position that Israel is likely considering of wiping out a third to half of the standing structures in Gaza (about a two-week concerted campaign), resulting in anywhere between 300K and 500K deaths and depopulating Gaza by a quarter to third of the population. I would expect Israel to require the removal of a large portion of the people in Gaza.
Some people will say that Option 2 won’t happen. This is a form of magical thinking that is more hope than reality. Looking into humanity’s darkness, we see a clear path forward for much worse outcomes than Option 2. Israel likely possesses 1000 times the munitions required to decimate the Gaza Strip. It has now been motivated as a society in what by the Israeli population will be existential threat thinking.
Most Western nations have rarely, in the last 80 years, had to think of their sovereignty through the lens of existential threat. The generations with that experience have left the court of public discourse. Those who have lived with relative peace for nearly a century. Having outsourced to a sliver of their population the waging of war. Have thus created an ability to ignore the broader conflicts around the planet and are not required to take them seriously. Thinking about patterns, it is unsurprising to see Syria, Ukraine, and Israel (and half a dozen other hot spots) firing up as people have forgotten the lessons of war.
What are some specific things we can watch for in the near term? I expect to see a rapid escalation of hostilities within the day. Concurrently, those engaging in vacuous virtue signaling will use phrases like “war crime,” “world court,” “proportionality,” and language around constraining response.
The war crimes court prosecutes losers, not the winners. Over the last few decades, the number of events that rose to the level of war crimes, violations of world agreements, and general thuggery have eroded the legitimacy of those tribunals. The United Nations response so far has been lackluster and eroded its credibility and legitimacy. That’s not unusual, as the bias of the United Nations is pretty apparent. Condemning the Israeli response impacting civilians when the entire Hamas attack targeted civilians is lame.
What else can we expect to see? ISIS and various localized terrorist organizations have fractured the Arab nation’s political will. Remember, Egypt has a blockade against Gaza, like Israel. Much of this conflict is related to the refusal of Arab nations to take in the people living in the Gaza strip. That fracture in solidarity and the financial background of those nations suggest their response will be vociferous while timid. I would expect humanitarian support to enter Gaza, but not much else.
Similarly, I expect sanctions to be suggested against Israel at some point. Think about how America eroded worldwide support within a year post-9/11. Israel has a window to operate within where vengeance can be sought before they must consider apologies. I could see limited US engagement on the ground in support of Israel, but from what I understand of Israel, they will want to do this themselves. Russia and Iran will likely push assistance to Hamas and Gaza, resulting in erecting humanitarian blockades. The combatants’ use of civilian tools, lack of uniforms, and general hidden nature will result in significant civilian casualties.
Another thing to consider is the imminent demise of Iran leaders and people related to Hamas in other nations. Expect many people from Hamas/Iran’s political and leadership class to fall out of windows worldwide in the next few weeks. Other supporters of Hamas around the region should ensure their affairs are in order. We are on the precipice of politics by other means, unlike the unfortunate events perpetrated against Iranian nuclear scientists.