Historically, China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan and has not renounced the use of force to achieve reunification. There has been speculation that China has a timetable to take over Taiwan by 2027, aligned with the PLA centennial. Recent events of the elections in Taiwan have likely at least peeved off the leadership of China. 2024 offers a unique confluence of events for China to invade and take over Taiwan or create a significant event leading toward unification.
From a geo-strategic and military capability, the United States is currently involved in support, sustainment, or active military conflict in Ukraine, Israel, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Syria, and Korea. Current regional conflicts could impact the United States, as esoterically as the annexation of large areas of Guyana by Venezuela and as overtly as the freedom of navigation around the Spratly Islands. There are also indications of increasing piracy off Columbia, Panama, and Mexico that could impact global shipping.
All of this, plus much more, would be part of the calculus of Chinese leadership when considering what they’re willing to do. I’m NOT arguing for China to invade Taiwan or saying they will invade Taiwan. I’m pointing out that the probability is not zero and that 2024 offers some unique opportunities.
However, any decision to invade Taiwan would be complex and highly consequential, with significant geopolitical implications. The steps China might take if it were to consider such action could include:
- Political and Diplomatic Pressures: China may increase diplomatic and political pressure on Taiwan to encourage reunification on its terms. This could involve isolating Taiwan diplomatically, persuading other countries not to recognize Taiwan, or offering economic incentives for closer ties.
- Military Buildup and Demonstrations: China might increase its military presence in the region as a show of force. This could involve conducting military exercises, deploying additional forces to the Taiwan Strait, or other demonstrations of military capability.
- Information Warfare: China could use information warfare to shape public opinion and perceptions domestically and internationally. This may involve propaganda campaigns, disinformation, and cyber operations.
- Economic Leverage: China could use financial tools to influence Taiwan, such as trade restrictions or economic incentives. Economic leverage could be employed to undermine Taiwan’s stability and increase dependence.
- Unification Proposals: China might propose peaceful unification plans to Taiwan, offering a framework for reunification that it considers acceptable. These proposals could involve autonomy arrangements or other political solutions.
- International Relations: China might seek to weaken international support for Taiwan by persuading countries to shift their diplomatic recognition away from Taiwan or refrain from supporting Taiwan in international forums.
It’s important to emphasize that these are speculative steps, and the actual course of events would depend on numerous factors, including the international community’s reactions, Taiwan’s stance, and the evolving geopolitical situation. The international community, including the United States, is interested in maintaining stability in the region, and any conflict would have far-reaching consequences.
The Chinese diaspora is a unique power multiplier representing a diverse and widespread community with varying degrees of connection to the Chinese government. Leveraging the Chinese diaspora in the context of a potential invasion of Taiwan would depend on several factors, including the political views of the diaspora members, their level of influence, and the specific goals of the Chinese government. It’s important to note that not all members of the Chinese diaspora share the same views or allegiances.
Potential ways in which the Chinese diaspora could be leveraged include:
- Information and Propaganda: The Chinese government might seek to use the diaspora to disseminate information, shape public opinion, and promote its narrative. This could involve encouraging diaspora members to participate in media campaigns, social media activities, or other forms of communication to support the government’s position.
- Advocacy and Lobbying: The Chinese diaspora, particularly those with political influence, could be mobilized to advocate for China’s stance on Taiwan in foreign countries. This might involve lobbying efforts, engagement with policymakers, and public relations activities.
- Economic Contributions: The Chinese diaspora is often economically successful and influential. The Chinese government could encourage diaspora members to invest in or support initiatives that align with its goals, potentially using economic leverage to shape opinions or gain support.
- Cultural and Community Ties: Leveraging cultural and community ties, the Chinese government may encourage diaspora members to express solidarity with China’s position on Taiwan. This could involve organizing cultural events, forums, or community outreach programs.
- Intelligence Gathering: Some members of the Chinese diaspora may have access to valuable information or networks. The government might seek to leverage these connections for intelligence-gathering purposes.
It’s essential to recognize that the Chinese diaspora is not a monolithic group, and individuals within it may have diverse perspectives, including support for the government, opposition, or neutrality. Governments and societies hosting Chinese diaspora communities would likely monitor and respond to any attempts to exploit these communities for geopolitical purposes.
It’s also important to consider that governments and societies hosting diaspora communities often have laws and regulations to prevent undue foreign influence. This ensures that individuals within diaspora communities are free to express their opinions and engage in activities without coercion or manipulation.
An invasion of Taiwan by China would likely have significant and far-reaching impacts on trade, economies, and global markets. The Taiwan Strait is a critical waterway for shipping and trade, and Taiwan is an essential player in the global technology supply chain. Here are some potential consequences:
- Disruption to Global Supply Chains: Taiwan is crucial in producing semiconductors and other critical technology components. An invasion could disrupt these supply chains, affecting industries worldwide, including electronics, automotive, and telecommunications. This could lead to shortages, increased prices, and production delays.
- Market Volatility: The uncertainty and geopolitical tensions surrounding a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could increase market volatility. Investors may react to the instability by selling off assets, and financial markets may experience fluctuations.
- Energy Security Concerns: The Taiwan Strait is crucial for oil and natural gas shipments. An invasion could lead to concerns about disruptions to energy supply routes, impacting global energy markets and potentially increasing prices.
- Currency Fluctuations: A conflict in the region could lead to fluctuations in currency values, particularly the Chinese yuan and the Taiwanese dollar. Investors may seek safe-haven currencies, leading to changes in exchange rates.
- Impact on Regional Economies: Countries in the Asia-Pacific region closely connected to Taiwan may experience significant economic repercussions. This includes countries with strong trade ties with Taiwan or part of its supply chain.
- Global Economic Slowdown: The interconnectedness of the global economy means that a disruption in one major economic player, such as Taiwan, could have ripple effects, contributing to a broader economic slowdown. Reduced consumer and investor confidence could lead to decreased spending and investment.
- Trade Sanctions and Responses: An invasion could trigger international responses, including trade sanctions against China. Countries may impose economic measures to condemn the military action, further impacting global trade dynamics.
- Humanitarian and Refugee Issues: A military conflict would likely result in humanitarian concerns, potentially leading to a refugee crisis. The displacement of people and the need for humanitarian assistance could strain regional and international resources.
It’s important to note that the actual impact would depend on various factors, including the scale and nature of the military conflict, international responses, and the duration of the crisis. The global community, including major economic powers and organizations, would likely play a crucial role in managing and mitigating the financial fallout from such a scenario. The potential consequences emphasize the importance of diplomatic efforts to address regional tensions and conflicts peacefully.